Maintain the framework, fine-tune the execution
Maintain the framework, fine-tune the execution
At mid-year, the relevant question is not only whether the scenario defined at the beginning of 2026 remains valid, but also how it should be executed in a more demanding environment. Growth continues to show resilience, albeit with less uniformity; artificial intelligence remains a driver of investment and earnings, although expectations are elevated; and markets have advanced with a degree of concentration that exceeds what aggregate indices may suggest.
The investment framework retains its main pillars: positive real rates, greater dispersion across assets, the need for selectivity, and the return of wealth protection as a structural component of portfolios. In this context, capital once again has a cost, and every investment decision should be justified by visible earnings, cash-flow generation, balance-sheet quality, recurring revenues, or the ability to preserve purchasing power.
Validating the framework, however, does not imply adopting a complacent view. The recovery in risk assets appears to rest on a narrower foundation, with concentration in a limited number of companies, tight credit spreads, and financial conditions that are more supportive than some fiscal, geopolitical, or inflation risks might suggest. The objective is not to reduce risk indiscriminately, but to take risk more effectively.
EQUITIES: Solid Earnings, Demanding Valuations
The second half of the year may require more precise execution. In equities, the key will be distinguishing between genuine growth and growth that has already been priced in. Exposure to artificial intelligence may continue to make sense within a structural investment view, but it will likely require greater attention to effective monetization, revenue recurrence, and return on invested capital.
FIXED INCOME AND CREDIT: Attractive Income, Limited Margin of Safety
In fixed income and credit, current yields once again provide a meaningful role within portfolios, although not all spreads compensate investors equally for the risks assumed. Intermediate duration, issuer quality, seniority, liquidity, and refinancing capacity should remain central variables in portfolio construction.
PRIVATE MARKETS: More Activity, but Liquidity Remains the Critical Issue
In private markets and alternative strategies, the focus should be less on increasing exposure indiscriminately and more on managing timing, liquidity, and the quality of each commitment. In an environment of positive real rates, illiquidity once again carries an opportunity cost and should be adequately compensated. This may favor a more selective approach, with attention to secondary opportunities, senior private credit, infrastructure assets with contractual cash flows, and managers capable of creating operational value, while avoiding commitments without clear planning or strategies that are excessively dependent on favorable refinancing conditions.
REAL ASSETS: Protection, Income, and Optionality
Real assets can also play a meaningful role within a balanced wealth architecture. Gold, infrastructure, energy, copper, electricity networks, and assets linked to real investment should not be viewed solely as defensive hedges, but rather in terms of the function they provide within a portfolio: preserving purchasing power, protecting against inflation or energy-related disruptions, generating real cash flows, and enhancing diversification. In this sense, their role is not to replace growth, but to complement portfolios with sources of stability, optionality, and functional protection.
In wealth management, the quality of execution is not measured solely by the outcome of a quarter or a year. Its value becomes evident over time: in the ability to maintain flexibility, navigate different market cycles, and act when markets offer more attractive opportunities. In an environment with a smaller margin of safety, discipline may become a source of long-term wealth advantage.
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