The markets have maintained favourable performance throughout the summer, confirming the resilience of risk assets, although with an increasingly narrow margin for error. Equities continue to be supported by solid earnings, while fixed income faces elevated long-term interest rates and tight credit spreads, reinforcing our preference for quality, carry and intermediate duration.
The macroeconomic environment remains constructive, although more uneven. The United States continues to lead, supported by consumption, investment and artificial intelligence; Europe is showing a gradual recovery backed by fiscal stimulus; China is advancing towards higher value-added sectors; and Latin America is benefiting from an improving macroeconomic backdrop. At the same time, rising public debt and greater financing needs are increasing fiscal risk and may keep pressure on long-term interest rates.
In this context, we maintain a favourable view of risk assets, but with greater selectivity. In equities, we continue to see opportunities in artificial intelligence and in a broader recovery across Europe. In private markets, selection and liquidity are becoming increasingly important, while gold and certain commodities continue to play a strategic role in portfolios. Rather than increasing exposure, the current environment calls for discipline in valuation, quality and liquidity management.
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