For decades, efficiency has been one of the great obsessions of businesses, economies, and investors. Yet history shows that the most efficient systems are not always the most resilient.

The relevant question is not only whether the scenario defined at the beginning of 2026 remains valid, but also how best to execute it in a more demanding market environment.

Commodities are back at the center of the analysis, with oil acting as the main transmission channel for geopolitical risk. The energy shock has reinforced an environment of more persistent inflation and higher interest rates.

For years, we have repeated that diversification reduces risk. Yet in many wealth structures, the opposite is happening: seemingly diversified portfolios that, at critical moments, behave like a single exposure.