May Investment Strategy
Commodities are back at the center of the analysis, with oil acting as the main transmission channel for geopolitical risk. The energy shock has reinforced an environment of more persistent inflation and higher interest rates, where high concentration in technology and a slowdown in global growth increase market vulnerability to potential corrections.
April Investment Strategy
The market environment is consolidating a regime shift, where the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and expansionary fiscal policy limits the scope for monetary easing. The energy-related conflict introduces an upward bias to inflation and has triggered a significant adjustment in rate expectations, with the Fed moving to a no-cuts scenario and the ECB even beginning to price in further tightening.
March Investment Strategy
The macroeconomic environment in 2026 reflects moderating inflation and global growth that remains resilient, albeit within a more complex regime than that observed over the past decade. Disinflation continues, but structural pressures stemming from fiscal policy, trade reconfiguration, and labor market constraints persist, limiting the scope for monetary easing.
February Investment Strategy
The start of 2026 confirms a regime shift in global financial markets. Favorable cyclical growth dynamics are now accompanied by a structural increase in geopolitical, fiscal, and monetary uncertainty, with meaningful implications for asset allocation.